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Musharraf Prepares the Military for his Civilian Presidency

25 September, 2007

Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf appointed a new head of Pakistan's top intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), on Sept. 21 and promoted several two-star generals to three-star rank. Though they are part of an ongoing and routine reshuffle, these changes to the army's top brass come as Musharraf prepares to step down as military chief in an attempt to secure his re-election as president. The retirements and appointments of generals are designed to ensure Musharraf's continued control over the military. The new ISI chief, meanwhile, will have his hands full as he tries to deal with a growing desire to live under Islam in Pakistan

According to a Sept. 21 press release from the military's media department. Maj. Gen. Nadeem Taj was promoted to lieutenant general and appointed ISI director-general, Inter-Services Public Relations said. Outgoing Director-General Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is expected to be promoted to a full general and appointed the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC). Taj is one of six major-generals who were promoted to three-star rank and given new posts; Maj. Gen. Mohsin Kamal was appointed to the key post of commander of the Rawalpindi-based 10th Corps, and Pakistani English daily The News reported Sept. 19 that Maj. Gen. Nasir Janjua had been promoted and appointed director-general of military operations.

These initial changes are part of the reshuffle triggered by the scheduled retirement of the current vice chief of army staff and the CJCSC on Oct. 7. Contrary to his usual style, this time around Musharraf is promoting and appointing the top generals in stages, which is understandable given that he wants to time the changes in the military leadership with his own re-election in the presidential vote slated for Oct. 6. In order to remain president, Musharraf needs to reach a political settlement with his opponents, which will require him to step down as military chief.

Musharraf's ability to secure another term depends on the Supreme Court's ruling on the petitions challenging his qualifications to seek re-election, and on whether a chunk of opposition parliament members -- including those from the Pakistan People's Party with whom he is negotiating a power-sharing deal -- resign. Regardless, he is moving along with preparations for the time when he is no longer military chief.

Since Musharraf's power is a function of his position as military chief, he needs to be able to ensure that he can maintain control over the army even after he becomes a civilian president. Formally, he will have this control; the constitution gives the president power to appoint the chiefs of the three armed services. However, since he will not hold the dual offices he has held since he came to power, Musharraf will have to share control with the next chief of army staff. It is well-known that from 1988 to 1999, when the army was not directly ruling the country, the sitting president was the one whose position was in danger during any struggle between rival political forces, because the army chief did not necessarily side with the civilian leader. To get around this problem, Musharraf is appointing and promoting people who will remain loyal to him after he takes a civilian role.

The ISI chief is a critical player in this because of the directorate's historic role in domestic politics. Taj, the new ISI director, is considered one of Musharraf's closest loyalists and could give the president vital support in his new position. Taj previously served as Musharraf's military secretary and as head of Military Intelligence (MI), the country's second-most-powerful intelligence directorate. He also was with Musharraf in the plane that former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif tried to prevent from landing in Pakistan in order to block Musharraf from mounting a coup against him. Additionally, Taj was accompanying the president in his motorcade during the second of two assassination attempts in December 2003.

And we are told Taj played an instrumental role in the 2004 release of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's husband, Asif Zardari. Moreover, Bhutto has a favorable opinion of Taj -- an indication that his appointment as ISI director-general is part of the ongoing Musharraf-Bhutto negotiations.

Loyalty, however, is not the only criterion informing Musharraf's decisions as he appoints top generals. He also needs competent individuals to lead the military at a time when civilian institutions -- the judiciary, media and civil society -- have grown more assertive in the wake of the political crisis stemming from Musharraf's move to sack the country's chief justice. In addition, though a strong military leadership could challenge Musharraf, it is what he needs in order to further his personal and corporate interests. This is why Musharraf has thus far promoted and appointed generals who are known as very competent individuals. Taj was the commandant of the Pakistan Military Academy, and Kamal, the new commander of the 10th Corps, headed the famous Command and Staff College at Quetta and was commander of the sensitive department of Force Command Northern Area.

That said, Pakistan now faces the biggest challenge since its inception: a growing movement for Political Islam. Thus far, the military establishment has been on the defensive regarding an unprecedented wave which is transforming Pakistanis. Political parties such as Hizb ut Tahrir, Tanzeem-e-Islami who are peaceful and calling for the implementation of Sharia or the Caliphate.

The coming political transition is unlikely to foster stability because Musharraf will be sharing power with a civilian prime minister leading a coalition government, and with an army chief. This means the next army chief and the new head of the ISI could be heavily involved in politics at a time when they need to concentrate on obeying Washington orders.

The process of purging Islamic sympathizers within the ranks of the military and the intelligence apparatus has been going on since the 9/11 attacks, but the new ISI chief will not be able to deal with the growing desire for Islam before sealing the leaks in the national security network -- an objective that is not likely to be achieved any time soon. Among other problems, this could create a conflict between Washington and Islamabad over the United States' counterIslam imperatives.