Mass Migration-Apprehensions And Hopes
18 November, 2005
By Amir Latif
He had been able to build his small house after a relentless hardwork spanning over 25 years. He and his family comprising 6 children and a wife could live for merely 5 years in their dream house. Their dream like hundreds of thousands of other people shattered on October 8 when one of the massive earthquakes in the world history measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale reduced their houses into mere ruins besides causing thousands of casualties.
This is Fahim Mir, a refugee from occupied Kashmir and owner of a small shop in the main bazaar of Chakothi, a beautiful town of Aazd Kashmir located just two Kilometers off the Line of Control (LoC). His house had been located in a small village namely Merabkot, two Kilometers away from Chakothi bazaar, where he and his village-mates are engaged in digging through the debris of their respective houses to find out if there is anything intact.
Around 237 people out of a total population of 2000 have lost their lives in the earthquake. Fahim has lost his wife. Fahim, who has just turned 54, is one of hundreds of people who are preparing to move down to Muzzafferabad, the destroyed capital of Azad Kashmir, where they could at least save themselves from the treacherous snowfall which is about to catch them, if they have to live even in tents.
The only thing they are waiting for is the opening of road from which has been badly destroyed and blocked by the massive landslide in the wake of October 8 earthquake. The eleven-Kilometer portion of recently-built Srinagar-Muzzafferabad road from Chakothi to Sawan town has been badly damaged and blocked by landslide.
The landslide is so massive that it is almost impossible for the people, especially children and women to cross over it with luggage and the remaining livestock. From Sawan to Muzzafferabad (47 Km distance), long queues of earthquake survivors could be seen travelling down to Muzzafferabad in search of food and shelter.? We have no other choice, but to leave this area?, Fahim Mir told this correspondent in a choked voice as he loves his area and its people like he does with his children.
? Even if we are provided with tents and food, we can?t stay here as this area will be blanketed with snow after a few weeks. These tents cannot provide us shelter from the heavy snowfall in the months of December, January and February?, he added.
A visit to various villages located near LoC by this scribe reveals that the magnitude of the crisis is aggravating with every passing day as the area dwellers who have escaped the October 8 disaster, are now going to face another affliction i.e. a treacherous snowfall approaching nearer.
Most of the villages near LoC are located on the mountains. The villagers have to go down through narrow and dangerous tracks to fetch water from Jehlum River or nearby springs. These tracks have been reduced into almost invisible traces as the earthquake has changed the shape of the land here.
These tracks have become difficult to travel even in normal days, but during snowfall season, it would be a Herculean task for the area people to travel through them.
Some of the villages near LoC are as inaccessible as even helicopter cannot land there.
? I haven?t thought where will I live in Muzzafferabad or Rawalpindi?, Fahim Mir said staring down the earth. ? My only concern is to save my children from snowfall.
Snowfall seems to be a monster for the people living on the mountains. They were not much worried about the constant firing and shelling by Indian army from the other side of Jehlum River, but snowfall is something to worry about more. And they are within their right to deem it in this way as A few-day stay in this mountaineer area endorses their fear.
People have already started migration from Neelam and Leepa valleys to Muzzafferabad and Rawalpindi due to a famine-like situation in several villages of the respective areas. Reports trickling from Athmaqam, Rajora, Barian, and Kundal Shahi, suggest that there is an acute shortage of food and tents in the said areas forcing the people to migrate.
Khalid Reza, an inhabitant of Neelam valley and reached Muzzafferabad after a four-day long journey, told Pulse that the people of Neelam valley are facing a famine-like situation as there is an acute dearth of flour, and other food items.
He said the dwellers of Athmaqam, Rajora, Kundal Shahi and Barian have unanimously decided to leave these areas before the snowfall as they would not be livable places in that harsh weather when there is no food and shelter.
Abdullah Shah, a resident of Leepa valley told Pulse that road between Neelam to Chinari is open for the traffic, however, the link road to Leepa valley is totally closed due to heavy landslide. He said the people of Leepa valley had been forced due to paucity of food and bitingly cold to migrate towards safer places before the situation got more worst.
Analysts are skeptical about the government?s preparations to handle the mass migration as the government is only concentrating on tent villages, but it does not comprehend the fact that these tents are not the permanent solution of the migration related problems.
Though, the Azad Kashmir Prime Minister Sardar Skindar Hayat has asked the migratory people not to leave their areas as ? it will lead to several migration-related problems?. However, he has not announced any plan or package to stop or handle the mass migration.
Analysts apprehend that the migration issue could be beyond the assessment of international community as massive landslide caused by the October 8 earthquake has completely blocked the two tributaries of the Jehlum river as it enters Azad Jammun and Kashmir from the Indian side and this could lead to possible flooding in the future, an image captured by NASA?s Terra spacecraft shows.
Acquired by the ?Advanced Spaceborne Therman Emission and Reflection Radiometer? on the spacecraft on Oct 11, the image shows a 30-kilometre wide region southeast of the earthquake?s epicentre between Muzzafferabad and Uri in Indian-controlled Kashmir in the Pir Panjal range.
The centre of the original image is at about 34 degrees, 13 minutes north and 73 degrees, 42 minutes east.
The 3-D image (which can be accessed http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/jpegMod/PIA03028_modest.jpg) shows a large landslide (which is about 2 km x 1.5 km of collapsed hillside) which has blocked the flow of two rivers which drain into the Jhelum giving rise to two lakes.
A US-based professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado who has conducted extensive research into earthquake activity in the Himalayas, Roger Bilham, has details of the image on his webpage and says that ?in the coming weeks and months the two streams will form upstream lakes until they breach the natural dam formed by the landslide.?
He adds that ?depending on whether this is sooner or later, the size of the downstream flood could be modest or catastrophic? in the downstream valley of Muzzafferabad. The image ? with the Jhelum meandering in the top right portion heading towards Muzzafferabad and its confluence with the Neelum river ? also shows a number of smaller landslides which the geologist says are a common feature of quakes in the Himalayas.
Prof Bilham, who led a team in 1999 to Nepal which corrected Mount Everest?s height by seven feet, makes the following observation: ?Although the earthquake resulted in widespread devastation, it is doubtful that it has released more than one tenth of the cumulative elastic energy that has developed since the previous great earthquake in the region in 1555 or earlier.? The quake of 1555 also hit the same area and was recorded by Nizamuddin Ahmed of Emperor Akbar?s court in his Tabakat-i-Akbari. Thousands were
As for the question whether such a large earthquake could trigger others in the region, Prof Bilham says that ?probably not? but then points out that quakes in the Himalayan are known to trigger others. However, he says, ?we know of no great earthquake triggered days to months after a major earthquake in the same region.?
On the other hand, authorities have cancelled plans to evacuate people from the earthquake-hit Alai tehsil in Battagram district (NWFP) and transport them to other places following their refusal to leave their ancestral abodes, senior officials said on Friday.
The district coordination officer in Battagram, Abdul Khaliq, said that the government had already decided there would be no forced evacuation from the quake-hit areas of Alai tehsil.
Mr Khaliq said the government had originally proposed to move 100,000 people from the affected area under the evacuation plan.
?People are in dire need of tents and financial assistance,? the DCO said, adding that the local administration in collaboration with public representatives was going to launch a compensation programme.
The evacuation plan had been drawn up in view of the harsh weather in Alai tehsil and rumours of volcanic activity being recorded in the area. Initially, it was estimated that 100,000 people would be relocated from Alai to tent villages in Haripur district.
The government had dispatched two teams of geologists to the affected areas to confirm reports of volcanic activity in the area. Officials said the geologists had completed their survey and had submitted a report to the concerned authorities.
The district administration had estimated that the affected people in Battagram district would need about 50,000 tents.
Meanwhile, the World Food Programme (WFP) has said the Oct 8 earthquake was much graver than reported earlier as, according to an assessment it carried out in collaboration with Unicef and Oxfam, some 2.3 million victims would require food to survive through the winter as compared to the earlier estimate of 1 million.
The WFP had based on its previous assessment of having to feed 1 million people when it had appealed for $56 million. This appeal has now been revised accordingly to feed the victims for up to six months.
The victims, the assessment report said, were already very poor and the quake had made them poorer and more vulnerable as they lost all they had ?- their homes and livelihood. These people are now desperate and have to be reached in the next three weeks before the onset of winter.
The WFP fears that the situation can aggravate because of the poor donor response. It had earlier warned that a window of hope for survivors was slamming shut.
Six out of the nine districts affected by the earthquake were already in the ?most food insecure? parts of Pakistan, where people depend on subsistence farming, livestock and wage labour during the lean season.
According to the finding, more than half of rural households surveyed lost all or most of their grain stocks and one fourth of the livestock was killed.
The local economy has collapsed. Even if the survivors had money to buy food, supplies are extremely limited. Large numbers of children were found to be suffering from diarrhoea or respiratory illnesses, suggesting that a rapid increase in cases of acute malnutrition could be imminent.
About 20 per cent of mothers with children under two years old have stopped breastfeeding, either because of illness or inadequate breast milk.
According to the survey, priority should be given to the estimated 200,000 people living in the most-difficult-to-reach areas in Neelum, Jhelum, Kaghan and Naran valleys as well as upper parts of Alai which will soon be cut off by snow for months.
It noted that less than 10 per cent of the affected population had left their communities for safe areas, the majority preferring to stay close to their lands and livestock. While large numbers of people are expected to move into camps as winter sets in, this is seen as a last resort. Many people are coming down from the mountains only to go back up empty handed.
Markets have not recovered in three of the hardest-hit areas, with trading coming to a virtual halt. And where markets are functioning, prices have soared. In addition, banks are closed, restricting cash and credit flow. The assessment mission recommended assistance to urban areas for the next two months and in rural areas until the end of February.
The assessment comprised secondary data and market analyses, more than 40 key interviews and a survey covering 700 households in more than 200 locations.
The report said that more than 50,000 had died and around 80,000 were injured and nearly 2.5 million people had lost their houses, majority of which now lived in tents and makeshift shelters.
The earthquake-affected nine districts in the NWFP and AJK were Battagram, Mansehra, Shangla, Muzzafferabad, Neelum, Abbottabad, Poonch, Kohistan and Bagh. But the worst-affected districts were Muzaffarabad, epicentre of the quake, Mansehra and parts of Bagh, where more than 70 per cent of houses had been destroyed.
The household survey indicated that food consumption in urban and semi-urban areas remained significantly better than in rural areas.
Among children from 3 to 5 years old, almost half had changed their feeding practices in terms of reduction in quantity (frequency and amount) and quality (types) of food. Main reasons for the changes were cited as shortage of food (55 per cent), fear and shock leading to loss of appetite (11 per cent) and sickness (11 per cent).
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